The polls and many of the pundits are suggesting Barack Obama is on his way to victory. He's got the "Big Mo" (as in momentum) on his side with less than three weeks to go before the election. People are already even speculating about the margin of victory--about a possible landslide.
But, if I may quote all of the applicable cliches in one go: "It ain't over 'till it's over," "It ain't over 'till the fat lady sings," and as the late British Prime Minister Harold Wilson once said: "A week is a long time in politics."
With two-and-a-half weeks of campaigning left to go before the November 4th election, it's way too early to call this one. In 18 days, anything can still happen and it probably will.
Maybe that's why Barack Obama warned his supporters on Thursday about getting overconfident. "For those of you who are feeling giddy or cocky and think this is all set, I just (have) two words for you: New Hampshire," Obama said to supporters in New York. "You know I've been in these positions before where we were favored and the press starts getting carried away and we end up getting spanked."
Another potential factor that has to be looming in the minds of his strategists is the so-called "Bradley Effect." It describes what happened to Los Angeles Mayor Tom Bradley in 1982 when he ran for governor of California against George Deukmejian. For those of you who aren't familiar with the name, Tom Bradley was the black mayor of our city who was leading in the polls in the governor's race in the days before the election. When all the votes were counted however, it was the white candidate, Deukmejian, who won.
Many have suggested Bradley lost because while voters told pollsters they were willing to vote for a black candidate, they weren't willing to actually do it in the voting booth. It's come to be known as the "Bradley Effect" in politics. Does it really exist? If it does, will it happen to Barack Obama?
One person who was there with Tom Bradley on election night in 1982 and who now supports the Obama campaign is Kerman Maddox. As some of you know, Maddox is one of the best-known political consultants and commentators in Los Angeles and he's an occasional guest of ours on the Morning News.
On election night in 1982, Maddox tells me he was a "wet behind the ears grad student assistant volunteering on the campaign." I asked him this week to describe that election night. Here's how Maddox remembered it in an email he sent over: "The mood on election night at the Biltmore Hotel was very festive, people were very excited about Bradley's chances of winning. When the local television stations using exit polling predicted he would win shortly after the polls closed, the ballroom erupted with applause."
But it soon became evident, the exit polling wasn't accurate.
"As the night wore on, the mood started to change because the numbers on the TV screen were not in our favor," Maddox writes."By midnight, it was clear something was wrong, the mood had changed dramatically and people started to wonder what was going on. The polls indicated we were up by seven-percent the weekend before the election, so people were pretty confident we'd win."
Maddox continues: "It was not until the next day when most people realized that Tom Bradley had lost the election! I was completely shocked and couldn't understand what happened. I had heard about an aggressive absentee ballot campaign run by the republicans and the influence of the gun control initiative on the ballot, but I immediately thought voters just weren't ready to elect a black man to be Governor of California."
The question today: Are some Americans telling pollsters what they think is the politically correct answer about supporting a black candidate for President of the United States while knowing all along that they have no intention of voting for the black candidate, Barack Obama? Or, if John McCain defies the polls and wins, will it be because voters simply believe he's the better man for the job and it has nothing to do with race?
For Maddox, the Bradley election was a generation ago. "That election was 26 years ago. The world has changed much in 26 years and I don't think this will be a problem," Maddox says. "Barack Obama is a different candidate and this is a different time in our nation's history."
What do you think? As always, I welcome your thoughts.
